PJM Reviews Proposed Large Load Adjustments for 2027 Long-Term Load Forecast

PJM Interconnection on Sept. 29 began its annual review of proposed large load adjustments for its 2027 Long-Term Load Forecast, applying updated guidelines intended to better assess the likelihood that proposed projects will materialize. The review comes as electricity demand across the region is rising rapidly, driven largely by data centers and other large electricity users.

The grid operator’s Load Analysis Subcommittee reviewed proposed load adjustments from 12 utilities, primarily related to anticipated data center demand and other large electricity customers. PJM will evaluate the submissions using updated load-forecasting guidelines and other information on expected demand growth to determine which proposed additions have sufficient certainty to be reflected in its load forecast.

Load Serving Entities submit large load adjustments to PJM, which does not maintain a dedicated interconnection queue for new electricity demand. The standardized process now requires utilities to provide additional information, including the status of customer contracts, to help distinguish firm commitments from projects that remain uncertain.

Under the updated framework, greater emphasis is placed on the timing and certainty of proposed demand. Projects expected to affect near-term forecast years must generally demonstrate firm commitments, such as an Electric Service Obligation or construction commitment. Longer-term projects may be included as non-firm adjustments because their development remains subject to greater uncertainty.

For the first time, an independent consultant, Charles River Associates, will assess data center demand trends and factors that could influence future growth. The analysis will examine the expansion of artificial intelligence and the digital economy, along with potential constraints involving electricity supply, materials availability and regional development. The consultant is expected to present its findings in October.

The final load adjustment will incorporate the utility submissions, consultant analysis and other market information. PJM plans to outline the adjustment in November before publishing the 2027 Long-Term Load Forecast in January 2027.