Data Centers to Drive Major Surge in U.S. Electricity Demand Through 2050: EIA

The U.S. Energy Information Administration on May 19 highlighted projections showing electricity demand from data center servers rising sharply through 2050, driven by expanding artificial intelligence applications and deployment of high-powered computing infrastructure across the commercial sector. In its Annual Energy Outlook 2026, released April 8, the agency projects server-related electricity consumption could climb to between 446 billion kilowatthours (BkWh) and 818 BkWh by 2050, depending on assumptions tied to electricity demand growth and efficiency improvements.

The outlook identifies standalone data centers as the primary source of growth. In the agency’s high electricity demand case, servers located in standalone facilities could consume 581 BkWh by 2050. EIA estimates servers represented about 7 percent of total commercial sector electricity consumption in 2025, with that share increasing to between 22 percent and 33 percent by mid-century across forecast scenarios.

The projections also show commercial building electricity intensity exceeding previous historic highs early next decade. Electricity consumption per square foot is projected to surpass the previous peak recorded in 2003 by 2031 or 2032 as data center operations expand and require additional cooling and ventilation systems. The agency projects cooling demand associated with data centers will become increasingly significant because server facilities require significantly more cooling than conventional commercial buildings.

Under the high electricity demand case, electricity use for commercial space cooling in 2050 is projected to be 84 BkWh higher than in the counterfactual baseline case because of more intensive data center operations. The agency assumes cooling demand in data center floorspace can be nearly three times more energy-intensive than traditional commercial space.

The outlook also introduces updated modeling that separately tracks data center server electricity use from broader commercial computing demand. The agency assumes server operations maintain relatively flat electricity demand throughout the day, reflecting continuous computing activity. The projections are based on laws and regulations in effect as of December 2025 and do not account for subsequent federal actions or court rulings.