Gulf Oil and Gas Output to Remain Stable Through 2026: EIA

Crude oil production in the Federal Offshore Gulf of America is projected to average 1.80 million barrels per day (b/d) during 2025 and 1.81 million b/d during 2026, marginally higher than 1.77 million b/d during 2024, according to a June 6 report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The agency projects natural gas production in the Gulf of America to average 1.72 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) during 2025 and 1.64 Bcf/d during 2026, lower than 1.79 Bcf/d during 2024. On the basis of these volumes, the Gulf of America is expected to account for around 13 percent of U.S. crude oil production and one percent of U.S. marketed natural gas production during 2025 and 2026.

The agency anticipates operators to commence natural gas and crude oil production at 13 fields in the Gulf of America during 2025 and 2026. Five fields will produce from four new Floating Production Units (FPUs), with the Salamanca FPU targeting production from two fields. Meanwhile, eight fields will be developed using underwater extensions or subsea tiebacks to existing FPUs.

The agency projects natural gas production from the new fields to average 0.09 Bcf/d during 2025 and 0.27 Bcf/d in 2026. Moreover, the agency projects crude oil production from all new fields to be responsible for 85,000 b/d of total crude oil production during 2025 and 308,000 b/d in 2026.

Whale, Ballymore and Dover are the fields which have commenced operations so far this year. The Shenandoah field is expected to start producing in June. Leon and Castile, Katmai West, Argos Southwest Extension, Sunspear, and Zephyrus Phase 1 are expected to start production during the second half of this year. Three new subsea tiebacks are projected to commence production during 2026: Silvertip Phase 3, Monument and Longclaw.

Production and development timelines could be impacted by hurricanes in the Gulf of America. Meteorologists at Colorado State University project 17 named storms during the 2025 Atlantic Basin hurricane season. An average hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA). Stronger hurricane seasons increase the risk of weather-related production outages in the U.S. oil industry.