Oil Prices and Refinery Margins Decline During Q1 2025: EIA

Crude oil prices and refinery margins declined during the first quarter of 2025, according to a May 1 report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Crude oil prices reached a quarterly high on Jan. 15 and were valued at $82/barrel (b) and settled the quarter at $75/b. The price decline can be attributed to concerns around future economic growth. U.S. GDP fell by 0.3 percent during Q1 2025 and this was the first economic reduction since Q1 2022. The price decline is consistent with the agency’s Brent crude oil price forecast at the start of the year. Brent crude oil prices are expected to decline from an average of $81/b during 2024 to $74/b in 2025 and $66/b in 2026. The agency’s price decline expectations can be attributed to slower demand growth and robust global growth in production of petroleum and other liquids. Voluntary production reductions from OPEC+ members and heightened geopolitical risks will continue to provide prices with underlying support over the next two years.

U.S. refinery utilization began the year at 93 percent but declined below 90 percent during the middle of January, and finished the quarter at 86 percent. Midwest utilization remained above 90 percent for the majority of the quarter, whilst West Coast utilization declined below the 75 percent level at the back end of March, because of an outage at PBF Energy’s Torrance and Martinez refinery. East Coast utilization began 2025 at 83 percent but declined below 60 percent during the back end of February and through March, finishing the quarter at 59 percent.

Refinery crack spreads for gasoline were around 70 cents per gallon (cpg) at Los Angeles and 35 pcg at New York Harbor during February, around 8 to 9 cents above the 2020–24 average. Crack spreads declined to 61 cpg at Los Angeles and 23 cpg at New York Harbor during March, both below their five-year averages for the month.