PJM Forecasts Summer Peak Demand Near 156,400 MW, Warns of Tightening Reserves

PJM Interconnection on May 7 released its summer reliability forecast projecting sufficient electricity supplies to meet expected peak demand across its 13-state region, while warning that tightening reserve margins and extreme weather conditions could increase reliability risks during periods of elevated electricity use.

The grid operator expects summer electricity demand to peak near 156,400 megawatts (MW) and estimates available generation capacity at about 180,200 MW. The organization also has approximately 7,800 MW of contracted demand response resources available to help reduce electricity use during periods of high system stress. Demand response programs compensate participating customers for temporarily lowering electricity consumption during emergency conditions.

The forecast follows projections from the National Weather Service calling for hotter-than-normal summer temperatures across the mid-Atlantic and southern portions of the regional transmission system, including West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee. More typical seasonal temperatures are expected across much of the Midwest.

The organization indicated that it is prepared to deploy demand response resources and emergency operating procedures if extreme heat, lower renewable energy production, widespread generator outages, or other severe weather conditions strain grid operations. System operators continuously balance electricity supply and demand while monitoring transmission conditions and potential equipment failures across the network.

PJM pointed to last summer’s operations as an example of how demand response resources can help maintain reliability during periods of elevated electricity use. Non-emergency demand response resources were deployed six times during the summer of 2025, including during a June heat wave that pushed demand above 160,000 MW on consecutive days. Peak demand reached approximately 161,300 MW on June 23 and nearly 160,900 MW on June 24, ranking among the highest summer peaks in the organization’s history. Demand response participation helped maintain system reliability during those periods.

The record summer peak remains 165,563 MW, recorded in 2006. Summer planning assumptions now include scenarios reaching as high as 169,100 MW under extreme but plausible conditions. The organization also warned that tightening reserve margins could reduce its ability to export electricity to neighboring systems during regional emergencies.