U.S. Biofuel Production Projected to Grow Through 2050: EIA

U.S. biofuel production is projected to grow by 18 percent in 2050, relative to 2019 levels, under the reference case, which reflects current laws and regulations in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook. The growth is driven largely by economic and policy factors, according to the agency’s March 9 report.

  • In a scenario with higher global crude oil price, increased consumption of ethanol and biodiesel as substitutes for petroleum products will result in a 55 percent growth in biofuel production in 2050.
  • Higher prices for transportation fuels make biofuels more price competitive with petroleum-based fuels, with domestic biofuel consumption increasing to reach a 13.5 percent share in 2050.
  • Low oil prices contribute to a decrease in domestic consumption of biomass-based diesel, with total biofuel consumption experience a slight increase as low gasoline prices result in more fuel ethanol blended into motor gasoline.
  • Biofuel demand is supported by regulations such as the Renewable Fuel Standard and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard.

In 2019, U.S. biofuels consumption totaled 1.09 million barrels per day, accounting for 7.3 percent of total motor gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel consumption.