U.S. Solar Generation Expected to Increase by 34 Percent in 2025: EIA

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has extended forecasts for five key energy trends through December 2026 in its latest short-term outlook, according to a report published on Jan. 15. The agency projects that these trends will have a significant impact on the energy markets over the upcoming two years. Electricity consumption is expected to increase over 2025 and 2026, driven by new demand sources and solar power supply is expected to fulfil the majority of the increase.

Electricity usage increased by two percent during 2024 and is projected to continue increasing by two percent in both 2025 and 2026 due to robust demand from data centers and demand from new semiconductor and battery manufacturing factories.

The agency projects the electric power sector to add 26 gigawatts (GW) of new solar capacity during 2025 and 22 GW in 2026. These capacity additions are expected to  increase U.S. solar production by 34 percent and 17 percent during 2025 and 2026 respectively.

Global oil consumption growth is forecast to be marginally below than the pre-pandemic trend. The agency projects global consumption of liquid fuels to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (b/d) and 1.1 million b/d during 2025 and 2026 respectively, in line with consumption growth in non-OECD countries.

U.S. crude oil production is projected to average 13.5 million b/d during 2025, having reached an annual record of 13.2 million b/d during 2024.  The agency projects crude oil production to be largely flat, in line with slowing drilling and competition activity.

The agency projects exports of natural gas by pipeline and liquefied natural gas to increase during 2025, with the majority of the increase coming from LNG exports. The U.S. LNG industry is experiencing a notable growth phase and is set to increase its base load capacity by 73.6 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) by 2028. This expansion is characterized by the advancement of multiple major projects, intended to bolster the nation’s standing as a prominent LNG exporter. Plaquemines LNG is the eighth liquefied natural gas export terminal in the U.S. and one of two U.S. LNG export terminals that commenced LNG production during 2024. The Corpus Christi Stage 3 terminal also began production during December 2024.