PJM Interconnection LLC released its fuel security analysis on Nov. 1 finding that its system is reliable and can endure prolonged periods of highly stressed conditions. The study analyzed over 300 scenarios that could occur from 2023 considering generation retirements, customer demand, fuel delivery, and fuel disruptions. The results underscored that in a sustained cold weather period with typical demand, the system can function reliably over an extended duration of stress. The grid operator said that load loss could occur “under extreme, but plausible conditions,” such as escalated retirement and extreme-load scenarios. Factors contributing to load shedding include the level of retirements and replacements, availability of non-firm gas service, ability to replenish oil supplies, and pipeline disruption and configuration. Although the system experiences highest demand in summer, PJM said the study focused on winter when fuel supply is under the greatest strain as heating customers compete with fuel delivery to generators. The analysis follows a 2017 report which found that the shift in fuel mix and technology types raises questions about system resilience. PJM seeks to find market-based solutions to address long-term fuel security concerns. The grid operator intends to present a problem statement to stakeholders in early 2019 and submit market rule changes to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in early 2020.