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Texas Faces Tighter Power Reserves Amid Growing Demand for Oil, Gas Drilling, Cancelled Generation Projects

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas unveiled a report on Dec. 4, which forecasts planning reserve margin for summer 2019 to be 8.1 percent, which is 2.9 percent lower than the previous projection issued in May. The Capacity, Demand and Reserve report contains five-year projections for planning reserve margins – the difference between the total generation available in the grid operator’s system and the forecast peak demand. ERCOT attributed the decline in reserves to higher summer peak load forecast and delays and cancellations of planned projects. Since the release of the last report, planned gas-fired projects totaling about 1.8 gigawatts and wind projects totaling over one gigawatt have been canceled. In addition, about 2.5 gigawatts of gas, wind, and solar projects have been delayed. Higher demand from oil and gas development in West Texas has also contributed to the growing electricity demand. The grid operator projects that annual peak demand will grow at a rate of 8 percent through 2023 in West Texas compared to the system-wide growth of 2 percent. Reserves are expected to increase to 10.7 percent in 2020 and 12.2 percent in 2021.

December 5, 2018
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