Renewables to Outpace Natural Gas to Become Predominant Electricity Source in 2030: EIA

The share of renewables in the U.S. power generation mix is expected to rise from 21 percent in 2020 to 42 percent in 2050, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 2021 annual outlook. The agency projects that renewable energy, driven by wind and solar power, will surpass natural gas to become the predominant source of generation by 2030.

Among the key projections:

• Through 2050, the share of U.S. generation from renewables will double; wind energy will drive most of the growth from 2020 through 2024, accounting for two-thirds of the increase.
• After the federal production tax credit for wind phases out at the end of 2024, solar generation will account for nearly 80 percent of the renewable generation growth through 2050; utility-scale solar PV facilities will receive a 30 percent investment tax credit through 2023, reduced to 10 percent beginning in 2024.
• Solar generation, including photovoltaic and thermal technologies, is expected to outperform wind energy by 2040 to become the largest renewable generation source.
• The share of natural gas-fired generation will remain relatively constant through 2050, while the supply from the coal and nuclear plants will decline by half.