U.S. Crude Oil Production to Approach Record High in 2023: EIA

Prices for crude oil are projected to remain high enough to drive record output in the U.S. in 2023, reaching 12.6 million barrels a day, according to a Feb. 16 report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The Permian Basin is expected to contribute to the growth of overall crude oil production.

According to the agency, U.S. crude oil production will rise to 12.0 million barrels a day in 2022. This represents an increase of 760,000 barrels a day over 2021. By 2023, crude oil production is expected to average 12.6 million barrels per day, an increase of 630,000 barrels per day. The agency anticipates nearly 80 percent of the growth in crude oil production to come from the Lower 48 (L48) states, which excludes oil produced from Alaska and the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico.

The growth in U.S. crude oil production is largely driven by new L48 wells in the Permian region. In tight oil formations, crude oil production from existing wells tends to decline quickly, however, the new well production is anticipated to offset this decline. In the L48 states, 220 oil-directed rigs were added between January 2021 and February 2022, with 114 of them in the Permian region. Permian oil production is expected to average 5.3 million barrels per day in 2022, and 5.7 million barrels per day in 2023.

With the rise in crude oil prices since April 2020, crude oil production has also increased. Brent spot oil hit $97 a barrel on Feb. 7, 2022, the highest price since Sep. 17, 2014. According to the EIA, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices will range from $79 per barrel in 2022 to $64 per barrel in 2023, leading to a surge in drilling activity and crude oil production in the United States.