Natural Gas Usage for Power Generation During Summer 2024 Forecast to Reach 2023 Record Volume: EIA

U.S. natural gas usage for power generation during summer 2024 is forecast to reach close to the record volume consumed last year, according to a May 30 report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The agency projects that U.S. natural gas usage for power generation will average 44.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) during the peak summer months of June, July and August, similar to the record usage set during summer 2023.

U.S. electricity production is projected to increase by three percent during this summer, however the agency does not expect gas usage for power production to increase. An increase in power generation will be driven by higher renewable energy production.

The U.S. electricity generation mix during summer has changed significantly over the last few years. The U.S. has been using more renewable energy and natural gas for power generation and lower volumes of coal. Natural gas usage for electricity production has risen in most years since 2014, as natural gas has become more price competitive with coal. Moreover, natural gas fired production capacity has increased over the last decade.

U.S. power grid operators have increased dispatched natural gas fired generation to fulfil higher electricity demand since 2014, and natural gas production has also risen at the same time. More efficient combined cycle gas turbine power generators, increased accessibility and comparatively low natural gas prices have made gas fired generation economical to operate and as result elevating the usage of natural gas as a power source compared with coal. U.S. natural gas fired generation capability has increased by 19 percent, or 79 gigawatts, since 2014 and production has grown 60 percent, or 675,000 gigawatthours.

As renewable energy sources in the U.S. have grown, natural gas utillization has increased to balance the sporadic nature of power produced from intermittent solar and wind. The proportion of U.S. power generation from natural gas in the summer has risen almost every year since 2014, except in 2021, rising from 29 percent in 2014 to 46 percent in 2023. The agency projects the share of summer electricity generation from natural gas to decline to 44 percent in 2024, due to increasing power generation from renewable sources, particularly solar.