Alaskan Crude Oil Production Forecast to Increase During 2026: EIA

Alaskan crude oil production is forecast to rise by 16,000 barrels per day (b/d) year-on-year during 2026 to 438,000 b/d, according to a March 19 report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The increase in crude oil production in the state can be attributed to two new oil developments: the Nuna and Pikka projects. If realized, this yearly production rise will be the first since 2017 and the biggest since 2002.

The average yearly crude oil production in the state hit a high of 2 million b/d during 1988, but has declined since due to downturn in production at mature oil fields, high production and exploration expenditures and limited lease accessibility. Extreme weather conditions, coupled with restricted weather opportunities during which to explore and drill, increase development and production costs, making the production of crude oil extremely capital-intensive.

The agency projects yearly Alaskan crude oil production to average 422,000 b/d during 2025, a yearly increase of 1,000 b/d, compared to the previous five-year (2020-24) average yearly decline of 9,000 b/d. Higher production from the Nuna project on the North Slope, compensates for the reduction in existing well production. The Nuna projects 29 wells are expected to produce a total of 20,000 b/d of oil during its peak.

Crude oil production from the Phase 1 of the Pikka development project on the North Slope is a key driver of higher production crude oil forecast during 2026. The Pikka project at its peak is projected to produce 80,000 b/d from 45 wells.

As of the end 2024, 22 percent of the wells for the Pikka and Nuna projects have been drilled. Moreover, an additional 58 wells are expected to be drilled by 2028, which would support relatively high rig activity. The higher crude oil production is projected to supply refineries in Alaska, California and the Pacific Northwest.

President Trump signed an executive order in January, titled Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Potential, to maximize the development and production of natural resources located on both federal and state lands within Alaska, prioritizing Alaska’s liquefied natural gas potential.