Natural Gas Constraints Pose Electric Reliability Risks in the Northeast: NPCC Study

The Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) on Jan. 21 released a report highlighting the risks of natural gas dependency for electric reliability in Northeastern regions. The extensive analysis received input from diverse stakeholders including electric and gas system operators and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC).

NERC commended the initiative to analyze the ability of the region’s natural gas system to sustain electricity reliability, noting that the study’s credible conclusions emphasize the urgent need for stakeholder action to implement risk mitigation actions, beyond current industry coordination efforts. NPCC initiated the study in November 2023 with several key objectives regarding the relationship between the natural gas system and electric reliability.

The report concludes that the natural gas system is operating at full or almost full capacity during extreme weather conditions, and notes that contingencies, such as pipeline disruptions and prolonged extreme weather threaten reliability.

Among the key findings, the report notes that the majority of the gas-fired generators operating in New York and New England do not have reliable transportation arrangements, which leaves these areas vulnerable to gas supply interruptions during the peak heating season in the winter. The most effective way to mitigate this issue is to maintain dual fuel capability, supplemented by liquid fuel storage and fuel replenishments.

In New England, two LNG importers – Constellation Everett Marine Terminal EMT and Repsol Saint John – are essential for gas-fired power generation to meet fuel assurance goals. The study finds that if Constellation EMT is unable to deliver gas, Repsol Saint John could struggle to deliver gas to certain points in the eastern part of the gas network.

In New York, the consolidated pipeline network in upstate regions could face constraints during cold snaps, reducing gas availability in the Hudson Valley and the Capital District areas for power generation. In the downstate areas of New York City and Long Island, the current natural gas infrastructure is inadequate to meet the demand from all generators during a cold snap.

In November 2023, NERC released the 2024-2025 Winter Reliability Assessment which showed that constraints in natural gas supplies would hinder winter readiness in parts of the country. The report highlighted the Midwestern and Northeastern regions of the U.S. to be at an elevated risk of electricity shortfall during extreme weather.