New York Electric Grid Ready to Meet Forecasted 24-Gigawatt Peak Winter Demand: NYISO

The New York Independent System Operator on Nov. 13 confirmed that the state has adequate supplies to meet the forecasted electricity demand this winter. The grid operator’s 2024-2025 annual assessment revealed that the state has 29,514 megawatts (MW) of power resources, which is more than sufficient to meet a forecasted peak demand of 23,800 MW.

The assessment also highlights concerns regarding declining reliability margins and fuel availability for the generation fleet. Fuel supply disruptions could result in operational challenges during extreme winter weather.

During the last winter period, peak electricity demand reached almost 23,000 MW in early January of 2024. The highest winter peak demand ever recorded for New York was 25,738 MW on Jan.7, 2014.

With New York projected to become a winter-peaking system by the middle of the next decade, the grid operator continues to raise concerns over shrinking reliability margins. A recent study by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation showed that New York has a maximum electric resource deficiency of almost 4,000 MW during extreme weather events.

Last month, the New York Public Service Commission also confirmed that both electric and natural gas utilities were prepared to meet projected winter demand. On a statewide average, a residential customer consuming 600 kWh a month is expected to pay $58, which is a 2 percent decrease from last winter.

The commission noted that electric utilities have hedged 70 percent of their estimated statewide full-service electric residential energy demand to prepare for volatile market prices in the winter. Commission staff found that, after the extreme winter weather from the Polar Vortex in 2013-2014, utility owners have implemented measures such as increasing pre-winter on-site fuel reserves, establishing solid fuel contracts with suppliers, and thorough pre-winter maintenance.