New York Grid Operator Reports Adequate Supplies to Meet Winter Electricity Needs

The New York Independent System Operator on Nov. 28 reported that power supply in the state is projected to be adequate this winter, to fulfil estimated peak demand requirements, with 43,184 megawatts (MW) of electricity supply available.

The grid operator projects peak demand for winter 2022-23 to reach 23,893 MW, an increase of 658 MW over last winter’s actual peak demand of 23,235 MW (reached on Jan. 11). The grid operator’s extreme winter weather scenario shows an increase of up to 26,086 MW in peak demand. This, together with anticipated availability of natural gas for power generation, would result in a projected surplus of 1,620 MW.

New York’s all-time winter peak was set in 2014, when demand reached 25,738 megawatts, prompting changes to market designs and incentives for generators to secure fuel and improve preparations to meet peak demand. The changes, coupled with measures to enhance situational awareness of gas system conditions and monitoring fuel inventories, helped the grid operator to reliably meet demand during cold snaps in the past two winters.

As part of the grid operator’s annual winter readiness process, the operators send detailed surveys to generators in the state. The surveys provide operators with significant knowledge to comprehend specific difficulties during each season. Among the points highlighted in the 2022-23 winter season survey, oil inventories both in New York and the U.S. are below historical levels based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and the grid operator is monitoring regional supplies. Oil and dual-fuel generation have adequate start-of-winter oil inventories, although  lower than previous years.

The grid operator has surveyed most power generating facilities to discuss their winter preparedness in the past as well as preparations for the upcoming winter, including dual-fuel operation, preventative maintenance in anticipation of cold weather, fuel procurement, and fuel switching capabilities. Moreover, a communications protocol with state agencies is expected to enhance the speed and efficiency of requests for emissions waivers if required to meet reliability.

Wholesale prices are expected to rise sharply this winter on account of economic and geopolitical factors that have been impacting the cost of natural gas used for power generation.