North America’s LNG Export Capacity Poised to Double by 2028: EIA

North American liquified natural gas (LNG) export capability is expected to increase from 11.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) during 2023 to 24.4 Bcf/d in 2028, according to a Sep. 3 report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The agency’s projection hinges on the expectation that projects that are currently being developed will become operational as anticipated. The agency projects developers in Mexico and Canada to locate their first LNG export terminals into service in the U.S. to enhance the current LNG capacity.

The agency projects LNG export capacity to increase by 2.5 Bcf/d in Canada, 0.6 Bcf/d in Mexico and 9.7 Bcf/d in the U.S. LNG exports have become more profitable for North American producers since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Higher gas prices in the UK, European and Asian markets have made profitability margins attractive for North American sellers, amid a structural shift in trading dynamics, following the cessation of Russian pipelined gas to Europe. Increasing profitability of LNG exports for producers has been the underlying driver behind the construction and financing of new projects.

In Mexico, the Fast LNG Altamira production units and Energia Costa Azul LNG export terminal are currently under construction, combining to provide an LNG export capacity of 0.6 Bcf/d.  An additional 4.5 Bcf/d could become operational from a number of other projects, however no final investment decision has been made. Among other things, North American LNG export capacity investment decisions will continue to be driven by prices in global gas markets.

In Canada, 2.5 Bcf/d of LNG export capacity is under construction. Moreover, the Canada Energy Regulator has approved four additional LNG export projects. In the U.S. five LNG export projects are currently under construction with a combined export capacity of 9.7 Bcf/d.