U.S Biofuel Exports Set to Fall After Record 2018: EIA

Exports of fuel ethanol, the most common biofuel consumed both domestically and globally, will fall to an average of 90,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2019 and 2020 after they peaked at nearly 110,000 b/d in 2018 driven by record exports to Brazil, according to the Energy Information Administration’s February 2019 Shot-Term Energy Outlook.

• The agency expects that several recent trends in U.S. biofuels markets will continue through 2020, namely production of fuel ethanol and net imports of biomass-based diesel stay, while net exports of fuel ethanol decline modestly.
• Biomass-based diesel production, excluding renewable diesel, was about 120,000 b/d in 2018 and grows to 160,000 b/d in 2020. Total biomass-based diesel consumption will increase from an estimated 134,000 b/d in 2018 to 174,000 b/d in 2020.
• Biofuels remain a relatively small percentage of total U.S. liquid transportation fuel supply, with consumption supported over time by the controversial federal Renewable Fuel Standard as well as state-level biofuel programs.
• U.S. consumption of motor gasoline was 9.31 million b/d in 2018, and the agency expects that it will increase by less than 1% annually to 9.36 million b/d by 2020.