U.S. Energy Consumption Growth Forecast to Decline in the Short Term: EIA

U.S. energy consumption is projected to decline for the remainder of this decade and is expected to continue its decline over the 2030 period, according to an April 15 report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The agency’s forecast has been published in its Annual Energy Outlook 2025, which examines possible long term energy trends in the U.S. The agency projects energy consumption to rebound in the early 2040’s and increase up until 2050. U.S. energy usage during 2050 is lower than during 2024, in the majority of the scenarios explored in the report, with the underlying outcomes varying significantly based on the underlying assumptions.

The Annual Energy Outlook was not published during 2024, due to the agency making changes to its forecasting capabilities. In its 2023 edition, U.S. energy consumption was forecast to increase in a number of end use sectors. Total energy consumption, including electricity usage and electricity related losses were projected to increase by as much as 15 percent from 2022 to 2050. The contrasting projections between 2023 and 2025 highlight the fact that forecasts are highly dependent on market conditions, data, model structures, methodologies, and assumptions used in their development.

The findings from the reports are based on a number of assumptions and methodologies and can change significantly depending on geopolitical events, market dynamics, consumer and producer behaviour, commodity prices and laws and regulations, among a number of other things.