U.S. Natural Gas Trade Projected to Grow as New LNG Export Projects Come Online: EIA

An increase in U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG) exports are projected to lead to higher volumes of U.S. natural gas exports during 2024 and 2025, according to an April 17 report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

U.S. LNG exports are expected to increase due to three LNG export projects presently under construction commencing operations and increasing to maximum production by the end of 2025. The agency also projects higher natural gas exports via pipelines, primarily to Mexico.

Net exports of U.S. natural gas are projected to grow by six percent during 2024 compared to the previous year to 13.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). Moreover, net exports are projected to increase by an additional 20 percent during 2025 to 16.4 Bcf/d.

U.S. LNG exports are expected to average 12.2 Bcf/d during 2024, a two percent increase compared to the previous year. Moreover, during 2025 U.S. LNG exports are projected to increase by a further 18 percent or 2.1 Bcf/d during 2025. U.S. pipeline gas exports are expected to increase by three percent or 0.3 Bcf/d during 2024, compared to the previous year and grow by an additional four percent during 2025.

During 2024 and 2025, the agency assumes that the current U.S. LNG export assets will operate at comparable utilization rates as in 2023. In April and May 2024, two out of the three trains at the Freeport LNG export facility will undertake annual maintenance and as a result U.S. LNG exports are expected to decline during this period. The Plaquemines LNG Phase I and the Corpus Christi Stage 3 are expected to start LNG production and load their first cargoes by the end of 2024. During 2025, the Golden Pass LNG facility is expected to commence U.S. LNG exports.

U.S. natural gas exports via pipelines to Mexico are expected to increase, due to several pipelines in Mexico becoming fully operational during 2024 and 2025. Moreover, gas supply through the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan underwater pipeline is projected to rise during 2024 when it starts transporting natural gas to Mexico’s first LNG export project, Fast LNG Altamira.